MONTPELIER, VT — A new statewide poll of 600 respondents from the Fiscal Alliance Foundation reveals a political landscape that is more complicated than a simple left-versus-right divide. Vermonters across political parties report significant economic pressure, but they differ sharply over whether state policies, public-sector unions, education spending and other institutions are helping or contributing to the problem.
Despite broad dissatisfaction with Vermont’s direction and affordability, Gov. Phil Scott remains broadly popular, with 58% of voters viewing him favorably compared with just 26% who view him unfavorably. His strong personal numbers stand out in an electorate where nearly half say the state is headed in the wrong direction.
Nearly 61% say their household income is not keeping pace with housing, property taxes and other living costs. That view crosses party lines: 63% of Independents, 62% of Republicans and 60% of Democrats say they are falling behind.
The poll, conducted by Jim Eltringham of Advantage, Inc., surveyed voters on affordability, taxes, education spending, labor policy, property rights, Proposal 3, and voters’ overall views of the direction of the state.
Independents emerge as the pivotal group
Among the poll’s major findings is that Independents, representing 34% of respondents, emerged as a pivotal group. Nearly half say Vermont spends too much on education, 47% say the state is headed in the wrong direction and 60% oppose Proposal 3 when presented with possible tax consequences. This group responded more closely with Republicans, which represent 23% of respondents. Only 26% of Democrats and 19% of Progressives believe Vermont spends too much on education. Those two groups diverged more sharply when Proposal 3 was linked to potential tax increases: 45% of Democrats opposed it under that scenario, compared with 25% of Progressives. The results suggest Democrats are more fiscally conflicted, while Progressives, 10% of overall respondents, remain the strongest defenders of Vermont’s current institutions and policy approach.
While Proposal 3 has overall statewide support of 43%, that support dramatically falls to 27% and opposition rises to 55% when potential impacts to taxes are introduced. Additionally, those polled responded positively to the concept of right to work and protecting employees’ right to choose.
Vermont voters generally have favorable feelings toward unions, but those feelings do not necessarily carry over when they are asked about specific union powers or the potential costs of those policies. A Constitutional Amendment of this magnitude has serious implications that voters may not fully understand. Voters may be supportive of protecting the right to unionize and join a union, a right already protected in Vermont by law, but they do not appear to understand the implications of this Proposal. Voters can say powerful unions have helped Vermont while also supporting right-to-work and rejecting Prop 3 when higher taxes are put on the table.
Elizabeth Brown, Vermont State Director
Direction of the state
More broadly, nearly 48 percent of voters said Vermont government is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 32 percent who said it is heading in the right direction. More voters also said Vermont is becoming a less desirable place to live than a more desirable one, and nearly three times as many voters said their quality of life has worsened over the past five years as said it has improved. With working age Vermonters leaving, it should be no surprise that those aged 45–64 report the greatest dissatisfaction, and that their quality of life has worsened.
Taxes emerged as a particularly important concern when voters were asked what would make them more likely to remain in Vermont. More than half, 51 percent, named lower taxes as one of their top three choices, more than any other response. When voters were asked to choose just one, lower taxes again ranked first, at 27.5 percent. Voters were also asked what they consider “tax relief.” Seventy percent said tax relief means reducing the amount of taxes people pay, while 30 percent said simply slowing the rate at which taxes increase qualifies as tax relief.
In a separate question that provided respondents with information about Vermont’s per-pupil spending, property taxes, and student outcomes, 42.5 percent said Vermont spends too much on public education, 28 percent said current spending is about right, while 16 percent said Vermont is not spending enough.
The affordability problem doesn’t exist in isolation. Vermonters are looking at what they pay and asking what they are getting in return. Vermont has some of the highest taxes and education costs in the country, and voters are clearly questioning whether the results justify those costs. They are also making clear that simply calling slower tax increases ‘tax relief’ is not what they have in mind. They want their actual tax burden reduced, and that requires reduced spending, not just shifting costs.
Paul Diego Craney, Executive Director
The overall message running through this poll is that affordability is not a Republican issue, a Democratic issue, or an Independent issue. It is a Vermont issue. Voters have different ideas about why Vermont has become so expensive, but there is much broader agreement that the current trajectory has put pressure on household budgets. Any policy that asks Vermonters to pay even more is going to have to overcome that reality.
Elizabeth Brown, Vermont State Director
The poll also surveyed voters on property rights, the record of Democratic and Progressive control of the Vermont Legislature, and the favorability of President Donald Trump, Governor Phil Scott, Lieutenant Governor John Rodgers, Congresswoman Becca Balint, and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders.
Methodology
The poll surveyed 600 Vermont voters and was conducted by Jim Eltringham of Advantage, Inc. from August 24–27, 2026. The survey has a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points. Full toplines and crosstabs are available below.
Topline resultsVermont Affordability Concerns Poll · toplines · PDF CrosstabsVermont Affordability Concerns Poll · full crosstabs · PDF# # #
The Fiscal Alliance Foundation is a non-partisan, non-profit organization whose mission is to promote individual liberty and a more fiscally responsible, transparent government for a better New England through education and legal assistance.
